Inherent Unpredictability

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I have written before about ‘unintended consequences’. Another aspect to this is the inherent unpredictability of the future and the (current) unknowability of the future consequences of our actions. For example, might it be that if the Stonewall riots had never happened, that history may have unfolded in a different way where gay rights, and more generally LGBTQ+ rights, would have developed faster? Just one of the alternative pasts which are imaginable is that the Stonewall police raid took place, the ensuing riots never happened, and then sometime soon afterwards another police raid took place in another gay club which got out of hand and the police beat a number of gay men to death. The police involved were arrested, charged, imprisoned and there was a worldwide backlash resulting in more tolerance and acceptance of homosexuality which continued to rapidly develop, even in countries which are homophobic in today’s world. To be clear I am not saying that specific alternative history would have happened nor am I decrying the efforts of the gay community following Stonewall. What I am saying is that the chain of events of history is complex and any chain of events in the future is inherently unpredictable. Maybe our well-intentioned actions today will not lead to the future for which we hope. We should not stop the struggle for a better world but perhaps we should struggle with less blind conviction and instead face the struggle with hope, humility and understanding for each other.

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